The world after the crisis

China has just announced that the country fell a heavy rain of money. Put a bit more technical, as the Central Bank of China, by the end of the second quarter of this year's international reserves exceeded the benchmark of $ 2 trillion (1.4 trillion euros). In addition, in this quarter, China's economy grew by 8%. The same thing is happening in India, where this year there will also be a growth close to 8%. In these days it was learned that the Russian economy is shrinking by more than 10% so far this year.

But not only the Chinese do well. For Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, the two giant U.S. banks, the crisis is what happens to others. Both companies have just announced that in the second quarter 2009 earnings were spectacular. Additionally, Goldman Sachs has indicated that its executives will pay 11,400 dollars special bonuses. Not bad for a year in the global economy is lying and unemployment continues to rise almost everywhere.

In this news may have some evidence that the world comes. Although it begins to abate, the global economic storm continues to wreak havoc and changing many things. The surprises have not ended. Institutions that we thought were strong and permanent fragile and transitory (General Motors, AIG), and people who had never heard they have now become symbols of our time (Bernard Madoff). While it is impossible to describe accurately how the world will see that after this crisis passes, the performance of China and India, the U.S. superbancos of Russian economic catastrophe or shed some light on where we are going.

China and India are not invulnerable, and the probability of accidents (political, environmental, military, financial) that retards their development can not be overlooked. But what is indisputable is that until now have had a stellar performance. The average income of a resident of China today is more than ten times higher than it was in 1980 and India is more than triple. During this period no other country in the world has had these results. There are many reasons for this success, but the fact that both countries have more open and integrated into the global economy certainly has helped. A decade ago, for example, trade with the rest of the world it meant only one third of the economy of China and India in the fourth. Today international trade generates more than half of economic activity in those countries, and in the case of China reached almost 70% before the crisis in 2007.

After the crisis, both countries seem to have succeeded in replacing the demand of foreign markets that dwindled with the recession by domestic consumption. As reinvigorates other countries, India and China may recover those markets by adding that now enjoy the greatest demand for their highly stimulated domestic consumers.

The signal they send to these statistics is that the two Asian giants were very good and that the crisis has not caused the harm caused to other major global players such as Russia, for example. And they continue as they are, what happens in China and India will affect all of us increasingly.

The results of Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan contain signals about the world to come. Confirm that competition is one of the victims who was killed on the road following the rescue of the financial sector. Revive the credit and prevent the collapse of the system were the right priorities of those who were responsible for reviving the moribund financial sector. In the process, the number of competitors decreased and the concentration of economic and financial power grew. The good news is that there is still time to prevent the financial monopoly and cartelization are fundamental characteristics of the new global economy. Hopefully, in addition to time, we also have the will to do so.