Intuitively, many people know that if interest rates are low is not the time saving, and if interest rates are high is not the time to invest (at least borrow). Therefore, people are always still to read the newspaper, listen to the news on television and listen to renowned economists to find out their views about the future of interest rates.
I'm going to give you a tip that I gave in the Master of Finance, this tip is not a theory, which involves 100% accurate in practice but it does in many cases.
Turn on the TV or buy the newspaper and see advertisements banks. If you see excessive ads promoting credit banks with fixed rates of interest, then interest rates will go down or will remain low. On the other hand, if you see excessive ads promoting savings banks for a fixed term, then surely the interest rates will rise or will remain high.
What is the reason for this?
Assume that the borrowing rates of interest (savings) are 8%, and banks estimate that will rise to 10%, then they will promote savings with a fixed rate of approximately 9%. With this, the top rates to 10%, there's a lot of customers with their savings "tied" to 9%. That is, you are charging less to customers to keep their savings.
That differential of 10% - 9% = 1%, as banks gain with this strategy.
On the other hand, if the lending rates of interest (loans) are at 20% and the banks consider going down to 18%, then they will promote credit and term fixed rates approaching 19%. So, when rates drop to 18% will be a lot of customers with their claims "tied" to 19%, ie, customers will pay more expensive your credit value.
This differential is, of course, the banks earn.
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